![]() SSTs will remain near 29☌ (84☏) during this period, and ocean heat content will be high, near 35 - 50 kilojoules per square centimeter. Our top intensity models unanimously predict strengthening of Florence into a Category 4 hurricane by Wednesday, and the storm is also expected to increase in size. ![]() The SHIPS model predicts shear will remain low through Wednesday night. Intensity forecast for Florence: expect a Cat 4 by Tuesdayįlorence’s environment is very conducive for intensification. The HWRF model was our top intensity model from 2017, and predicted that Florence would make landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border as a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane with winds of 125 mph. HWRF model winds and pressure forecast for 8 pm EDT Thursday, September 13, from the 6Z Monday run of the model. In short, we should have steadily improving model forecasts of just where Florence will go.įigure 1. over the next few days to double the frequency of upper air data for the models to crunch. Special balloon launches are being performed across much of the central and eastern U.S. The NOAA jet will fly another dropsonde mission on Tuesday. ![]() A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will fly a research mission out of Bermuda late Monday morning, and regular hurricane hunter missions by the Air Force will begin on Monday evening. These will come out between noon and 3 pm EDT today. There is no recent hurricane hunter data from the core of the storm, though the NOAA jet is currently engaged in a dropsonde mission to help out the 12Z cycle of models. This was 25 miles farther than on Sunday morning. Florence was a medium-sized hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds that extended out up to 140 miles from the center. Satellite images on Monday morning showed that the storm was significantly more organized, with a prominent eye, a more symmetrical shape, impressive spiral banding, and a strong upper-level outflow channel to the northeast. ![]() However, with wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots, the hurricane has successfully walled off this dry air, and is now minimally affected by it. Florence was embedded in an atmosphere with dry air (a mid-level relative humidity of 50%). Top sustained winds were near 130 mph, with the estimated central pressure down to 946 millibars, a full 15 mb lower than the estimate from 11 AM EDT.įlorence was about 580 miles south-southeast of Bermuda at 11 am EDT Monday morning, moving west at 13 mph. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29☌ (84☏), which is about 2☏ above average. ![]() Update: at noon EDT, Florence was upgraded to Category 4 strength based on hurricane hunter data. Florence is likely to make landfall on Thursday evening or Friday morning on the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina, and the odds continue to increase that Florence will stall on Friday and meander near or over the coast for several days, making the hurricane a devastating rainfall and coastal flooding threat. Image credit: Ricky Arnold.įlorence has rapidly intensified into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, and appears destined to strengthen even further as it heads towards the Southeast U.S. Above: Hurricane Florence as seen from the International Space Station at 9 am EDT Monday, September 10, 2018. ![]()
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